During his term as President of the United States of America, Donald Trump has already caused quite a stir with his decisions and public appearances. His policies have had a significant impact on Germany. Therefore, it is also important for Germans to see whether Donald Trump will succeed in becoming the most powerful man in the world for another term, especially regarding NATO commitment, military spending, trade and foreign policy.
If Donald Trump is re-elected President of the United States of America, it could have far-reaching consequences for German security policy if, as has happened during his presidency, he challenges U.S. support for the NATO alliance.
What a second Trump term would mean for the world | Brookings
Doubts about NATO support
Even at that time, he wanted to reduce the role of the United States as the policeman of the world and to cut down the expenditures for NATO. His idea was that the NATO member states – and here he had Germany in mind in particular – should pay for the defense of the United States; otherwise these countries would have to face the fact that America would no longer help them.
With these ideas, Donald Trump is shaking the very foundations of America’s foreign and defense policy. In the long term, this would result in the United States moving further and further away from traditional allies such as Germany, which would also weaken transatlantic relations and put a strain on Germany’s security policy.
Germany might have substantially increased its military spending last year, but can it defend itself without the protection of the United States? Europe should unite and spend more money on military protection. Germany would also have to significantly increase its military spending.
German trade surplus will shrink
Germany’s high trade surplus with the United States has been a thorn in the side of Donald Trump. Already during his term as US president, he imposed tariffs on German products such as steel and aluminum. This worsened German-American relations.
If he wins next year’s presidential election, he plans to impose a 10% tax on all foreign companies that want to import their goods into the US. However, if a country imposes high tariffs on American goods, Donald Trump would „hit back“ with tariffs of the same amount – „call it retaliation“.
This would amount to a massive tax on cross-border transactions. International trade would become less attractive. Since Germany has an extremely successful foreign trade, which leads to positive growth in the German trade budget, a highly protectionist US trade policy would hit Germany hard.
Why is the WTO not acting?
The World Trade Organization (WTO) was originally created to allow member countries to take legal action against other countries‘ trade policies and to settle disputes over international trade.
But as of 2019, the World Trade Organization cannot act as a court of appeal. The US administration under Donald Trump has blocked the appointment of the Appellate Body and prevented the WTO from issuing binding rulings. As a result, there is little recourse to challenge protectionist tariffs.
Donald Trump’s foreign policy remains unpredictable
Recent decisions on the US budget and current polls paint a clear picture of American foreign policy towards Europe. The American voter no longer wants to „support a war that is taking place at an unbelievable distance from the United States.
Europe is going to have to figure out a way to help Ukraine fight Russia alone. This will require a major effort on the part of the Europeans. – Vladimir Putin will be satisfied with this American attitude.
Donald Trump says he has always had a good relationship with Vladimir Putin. And Mr. Putin would love a Republican in the White House. Preferably one who wants to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. Just like Donald Trump.
As president, Donald Trump has pursued an unpredictable foreign policy, often unsettling America’s partners. His behavior towards Iran, North Korea and China is hard to predict, but has enormous consequences for the world – and for Germany.
Chaos thrills Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s actions are already having the greatest impact on democracy in his own country. He stubbornly refuses to concede defeat in the 2020 presidential election and keeps talking about „voter fraud“ and „stolen elections”. This is a lie, but also an effective strategy to manipulate and polarize his people.
If Donald Trump were to win next year’s presidential election – legally – it would be a victory for his view that only losers abide by civil norms, government rules and laws. And America would lose its moral claim to be a democratic authority.
To the German translation of this article: Donald Trump – außergewöhnlich interessant für uns