Next year, many countries around the world will be holding elections. One of the most important elections for us Germans is the election of the President of the United States of America. The outcome of this election is of unparalleled significance for the development of the whole globe.
On the first Tuesday of November 2024, Americans will decide whether to give incumbent President Joe Biden a second term or elect former President Donald Trump to shape the world as he sees fit.
Donald Trump’s pre-election campaign is going well
The primaries have not yet taken place in America. But the Republican candidate seems to have been chosen. Donald Trump has not seen it necessary to participate in the two public debates that have taken place so far, where the Republican candidates present themselves to the voters – but why should he? Donald Trump is well known and has made more headlines than any other candidate.
As Donald Trump continues to be indicted and prosecuted, he only seems to get stronger. For his true supporters, the various state and even federal proceedings are only a reason to support him even more vehemently and donate even more generously.
Swing states would go to Donald Trump
In some states, the outcome has remained the same for years, so it is basically clear which party will win the vote before the election. California, for example, traditionally votes Democratic. Texas, on the other hand, has gone Republican for decades.
In other states, known as swing states, neither major party has a majority. However, these states are usually crucial to the outcome of the election. The candidate who has the most votes in these states is often the winner of the election. For this reason, these states are the focus of much of the candidates‘ campaigning. Swing states are Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
In early November, the New York Times published polls showing how Americans planned to vote in the so-called swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In the swing states, the picture is clear: 59% of voters are confident that Donald Trump can do more to advance the American economy than Joe Biden, who has only 37% of voters‘ confidence.
53% of voters think Donald Trump will solve the immigration problem, while only 41% expect Joe Biden to do so. On the question of who can solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 50% say Donald Trump and only 39% say Joe Biden.
Hispanics and African-Americans also favor Donald Trump
Joe Biden leads in only one of the swing states. In five of these states, Donald Trump is ahead among registered voters. As many as 42% of Hispanic voters and 22% of African-American voters would vote for Donald Trump if the election were held now. About two-thirds of respondents and a majority of Democrats say Joe Biden is too old to be president.
However, polls are only snapshots of public sentiment at one point in time, so how voters in those states actually vote will not be known until Election Day and is difficult to predict. On Election Day, the mood may be quite different.
Donald Trump – Is the world on the brink of disaster?
In terms of global politics, it makes a considerable difference whether a level-headed and prudent Joe Biden is pulling the strings of foreign policy in the world or an isolationist Donald Trump.
Ukraine is going to be dropped
This difference has become especially clear in recent times: Joe Biden, for example, has generously and quickly helped Ukraine with large sums of money. However, after the current negotiations on the US budget, it is clear that the Republican Party, under the influence of the “America First” movement, will cut the funds for the support of Ukraine in its war against Russia. The “America First” movement has close ties with Donald Trump.
If the United States cuts off its aid to Ukraine, abandoning Europe in the fight against Russia, Vladimir Putin will have great advantages in implementing his plans to tie former Soviet states such as Moldova or the Baltic states back to Russia.
Is America letting the world down?
Right now, there are many threats to democracies around the world. One wonders if a Donald Trump presidency would commit the US military to defend Taiwan or South Korea. Can the world still count on the help of the United States?
Without American pressure, it is hard to imagine any peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. NATO will also lose considerable influence without American support.
Is this the end of democracy?
The United States can hardly be credible in calling for democracy and international law in the world when it elects a president who disregards the civil rights of his own people and the American system of justice. Countries like China and North Korea are receiving confirmation that democracy has no value.
To the German Translation of this article: Unvorstellbar – wird Donald Trump wieder gewählt?