Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus and New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary are historically the primaries for Republican candidates running for president this November. Donald Trump was able to win both primaries.
In the public elections on January 15, 2024, about 32% of the state’s population voted for Donald Trump, while the governor of the state of Florida, Ron DeSantis, received about 21%. Former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley came third with 19%.
This is the result of the first primaries and should not carry much weight. But history has shown that the first primaries reflect the electoral mood of the country. That is why candidates consider these elections to be so important and invest a lot of money and energy in campaigning in these states.
So what does the Iowa caucus mean?
First of all, it is important to know that the state of Iowa has an above average white population. On top of that, Iowa was covered in ice and snow on election day, so only about 100,000 people – Iowa has more than 3 million people – came out to vote. So the turnout was only about 15%.
Apparently, Donald Trump’s supporters in particular did not shy away from the arduous journey to the polling stations, giving him a unique victory. Donald Trump is in control of his voters.
The Sunday after the election, Ron DeSantis announced his withdrawal as a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. He will now support the candidacy of Donald Trump.
The 77-year-old also wins in New Hampshire
The Republican primary in the state of New Hampshire took place on January 23. Donald Trump won the primary with more than 50% of the vote, while his challenger Nikki Haley received just over 44%.
Donald Trump has once again managed to rally his supporters with determination. Despite the uncertain political and legal situation as to whether Donald Trump’s candidacy is even possible with several court cases pending in March, a kind of „now more than ever“ movement seems to be emerging. Donald Trump’s fight against „the establishment“ seems to be bearing fruit, as his voters are fighting with him against „those at the top“.
However, the results do not necessarily mean that the Republican candidate is already a foregone conclusion. An analysis of the two primaries shows that Donald Trump performed worse among college graduates and in the suburbs.
The 51-year-old Nikki Haley may do particularly well with these voters. According to polls conducted during the Iowa caucuses on January 15, Nikki Haley ran above average among college-educated Republicans who describe themselves as politically moderate, who do not identify as evangelical Christians, and especially among those who believe President Joe Biden won the 2020 election fairly.
Who is Nikki Haley?
Born to Indian immigrants, Nikki Haley worked in her parents‘ boutique before running for public office. She became the first female governor of her home state of South Carolina. She served as ambassador to the United Nations, but became a favorite of Donald Trump’s opponents because of her appeal to relatively moderate and well-educated Republicans. During the campaign, she criticized Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership style, his comments on Israel (too tough) and China (not tough enough), and – more subtly – his age. The 51-year-old insisted that America deserved „a new generation of leadership.
Nikki Haley is the only remaining Republican candidate to challenge Donald Trump for the presidential nomination.
Where do we go from here?
There are several criminal cases against the former president that overlap with the Republican primary season and the general election campaign. It is unlikely that any of these cases will be concluded before the end of the primaries. Even if convicted, it is unlikely that Donald Trump will be imprisoned or disqualified from running for office before the election, although a number of legal challenges are pending.
But regular court appearances will interfere with Donald Trump’s campaign schedule. And the trials could anger Republican voters (although his previous court hearings have only strengthened his base).
As always, though, it’s very hard to tell what Donald Trump will do next: He has few firm beliefs, is a chaotic boss, and can change his mind several times a day. We wait with bated breath to see what the next few months will bring.
Key Dates in 2023 & 2024
In the spring of 2023, candidates must register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president. This is also when candidates announce their intention to run. Primary debates now take place from the summer to the spring of the election year.
January 15 Iowa Caucus
Traditionally, the Republican nominating contest begins in the state of Iowa with the first-in-the-nation caucus.
January 23 New Hampshire Primary
The first national primary is held in the state of New Hampshire.
March 4 Start of proceedings against Donald Trump in federal court
Probably the most serious federal criminal case against Donald Trump will begin on March 4. The Public Prosecutor’s Office is accusing him of trying to falsify the results of the presidential election in 2020.
March 5 Super Tuesday
The biggest day in the presidential race, with more than a dozen states going to the polls, including California and Texas. If Donald Trump still has a big lead, the race is pretty much over.
July 15 Republican National Convention
The Republican National Convention is usually a four-day event at which the party officially selects a nominee for President and a nominee for Vice President.
To the German translation of this article: Iowa und New Hampshire gewonnen – steht Donald Trump jetzt fest?