Donald Trump can now be prosecuted, thanks to a ruling by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. It could also have an impact on centrist conservative voters and swing voters. These voters could determine the outcome of the presidential election.
Another headache for Donald Trump is likely to come from the Supreme Court of the United States. The Supreme Court is set to rule on whether Donald Trump is allowed to participate in the Colorado presidential primary.
This could affect his candidacies in other states as well: More than ten states are currently challenging Donald Trump’s eligibility. In Maine, he is also supposed to be disqualified from running. However, the final decision there has been delayed pending the Supreme Court’s decision in the Colorado case.
Donald Trump’s immunity request
On February 6, 2024, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals decisively rejected Donald Trump’s claim that he enjoyed absolute immunity as a former U.S. president, even years after leaving office. “Former President Trump had become Citizen Trump”, the ruling said. He did not have the „divine right of kings“ but had to submit to the law.
Donald Trump’s lawyers had filed his „request for immunity“ after the Attorney General of the Department of Justice in Washington D.C., Jack Smith, accused Donald Trump of attempting to reverse the 2020 presidential election in early August 2023.
Hearing on Donald Trump’s immunity
The trial began at the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals on January 9, 2024. Donald Trump’s lawyers had argued that presidents could be tempted into inaction if they did not enjoy immunity after leaving office.
However, the three judges ruled that the judiciary is constitutionally obligated to ensure justice when prosecuting criminal cases. Giving former presidents full immunity from prosecution would override that justice. Moreover, former presidents have always „considered themselves indictable and criminally liable,“ the judges said. This means that the public interest in holding former executives accountable for criminal misconduct also outweighs this.
Donald Trump is granted a stay
The Washington court granted Donald Trump until February 12, 2024 to seek a stay and a full review by the Supreme Court. If the Supreme Court justices do not grant Donald Trump a stay, the case will be remanded to the district court and the trial could begin in the spring. However, it is more likely that the case will end up before the Supreme Court more quickly in the heat of the campaign.
Does this change Donald Trump’s chances of becoming the Republican presidential nominee in November?
If the polls are any indication, no!
Polls reflect voter sentiment
In the national average, Donald Trump leads the incumbent, Joe Biden, by 2.3 points. In the six crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he leads by an average of 3.8 percentage points.
Even though national polls reflect the general mood of the population and often agree with the election results, they are deceptive. There are significant differences in the poll results depending on how accurate the polling organizations are: The more accurate polls show better results for Joe Biden, while their less accurate counterparts give Donald Trump the lead.
With ten months to go until the presidential election, the question keeps coming up:
What is most important to voters?
Answered in general terms: The electorate considers the economy the most important issue facing the country. Studies that examine the relationship between economic performance and electoral outcomes tend to conclude that:
– Voters‘ views on the economy matter a lot
– Voters hate inflation
– Voters have short memories.
That is, according to these studies, Americans vote „how they feel now“ and „forget or ignore how they felt while the incumbent was in office.
A plus point for Joe Biden
This is good news for incumbent Joe Biden for the economy is improving rapidly. Inflation has fallen without causing a recession, and the tight labor market continues to ensure strong growth in real wages.
So economic growth could help Joe Biden win, even though nearly 60 percent of voters disapprove of Joe Biden’s economic policies. Donald Trump fares better on economic issues.
The electoral college
However, there is a peculiarity to the American electoral system: the Electoral College. Because of this system, winning the popular vote is no guarantee of winning the election. In recent decades, the Electoral College has generally worked in favor of Republican candidates.
On the other hand, polls conducted before the summer of an election year provide poor predictions of the outcome. This means that no clear winner can actually be determined from the opinion polls.
The problem of the Mexican border
What does the Mexican border have to do with the presidential election?
The border with Mexico has been a problem for years. Thousands of migrants enter the United States illegally every day. But American voters want to see the border secured and illegal immigration stopped.
Under the presidency of Joe Biden, the number of migrants apprehended at the southern border of the United States has reached an all-time high. And in the current election campaign, his policies will be judged in part on how he restores security to the Mexican border.
Therefore, there is an urgent need for legislation to improve border security. But the negotiations between the White House and a number of senators have been dragging on for months now. Some Republicans are linking their support for the bill to financial aid for Ukraine and Israel.
Act to improve border security
On February 4, the Senate released a 370-page bipartisan immigration reform bill. Shortly after the bill’s release, however, House Republicans condemned the plan and Senate Republicans blocked a formal vote on the bill on February 7.
The bill is considered particularly conservative. However, under pressure from Donald Trump, Republicans in the Senate rejected the bill they had helped to draft. The ex-president is planning to campaign on the border dispute.
Without the billions in the bill, President Biden will have a hard time keeping order at the border. Will this stalling tactic hurt Joe Biden’s electoral chances?
Or is Donald Trump facing an entirely different problem?
Can Donald Trump even run for office again?
On February 8, 2024, the nine justices of the Supreme Court will hear arguments on a new and important legal question: should Donald Trump be barred from federal elections?
Whether former President Donald J. Trump will be barred from running for office again depends in part on how his efforts to reverse his 2020 election defeat are viewed: Do those efforts, which culminated in a riot by his supporters at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, constitute support for or participation in an insurrection?
The case is based on a largely unexamined clause in a post-Civil War amendment to the Constitution. It disqualifies government officials who have „participated in any insurrection or rebellion“ from holding office.
In December 2023, the Colorado court had barred Donald Trump from the Republican primary on the basis of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This provision was enacted after the Civil War to regulate the conduct of officials who had taken an oath to uphold the Constitution but had violated that oath by participating in insurrections before and during the Civil War.
However, the language is general, but most constitutional lawyers believe that insurgents can still be removed from office.
In considering whether Section 3 of the 14th Amendment applies to Mr. Trump, a Denver judge and the Colorado Supreme Court concluded that his actions meet that standard. , but the former president appealed.
No presidential candidate has ever been charged with perjury. Therefore, there is no direct Supreme Court precedent on the issue.
At least 35 states have filed formal challenges to Donald J. Trump’s candidacy for president, according to a New York Times analysis of court records and other documents.
What will happen after the hearing?
It usually takes about three months for the Supreme Court to reach a decision. The most important rulings are usually not handed down before the end of June, regardless of how early in the legislative session the cases are heard. However, this case is different and the nation can expect a quick decision.
The judges have classified the case as an emergency proceeding, and the parties have asked for a quick ruling because they believe voters should know soon whether former President Donald J. Trump will be allowed to appear on the ballot.
The court could make its decision well before Super Tuesday on March 5, when Colorado and 14 other states will hold their primaries.
To the German translation of this article: Bundesberufungsgericht Washington: „Bürger Trump hat keine göttlichen Rechte“